Lifetime Overdiagnosis for NSCLC (excluding BAC) with LDCT Screening at Approximately 3%

 
Ps1a% (95% CI)
 
NSCLC Excluding BAC BAC All NSCLC
Scenario
vs No Screening vs CXR vs No Screening vs CXR vs No Screening vs CXR
3 Annual Screens
With 7 y follow-up
21 (16-25)
9 (6-12)
85 (69-93)
71 (52-83)
31 (27-34)
19 (16-23)
With Lifetime follow-up
2.6 (2.0-3.3)
1.2 (0.7-1.7)
49 (34-71)
41 (28-62)
11 (7-15)
9 (5-13)
5 Annual Screens
With 5 y follow-up
45 (39-49)
16 (12-21)
91 (84-95)
73 (56-85)
53 (48-56)
25 (21-29)
With Lifetime follow-up
3.2 (2.6-3.8)
1.3 (0.8-1.9)
51 (33-71)
42 (27-60)
12 (7-15)
9 (5-13)

Abbreviations: BAC, bronchioloalveolar cell carcinoma; CXR, chest radiography; or no screening cohort divided by total number of screen-detected cancers LDCT, low-dose computed tomography; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer. In LDCT cohort. aOverdiagnosis rate is total cancers in LDCT cohort minus total cancers in CXR

Patz E.F, Jr, Pinksy P. Gatsonis C. et al. Overdiagnosis in Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer. JAMA
Intern Med. 2014:174(2):269-274 dol: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.12738